Is the UGDSB municipally elected board at risk of a Provincial takeover?

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You’ve probably read, or heard, about the Provincial government appointing supervisors to curtail the autonomy of municipally elected school boards. I think most would agree that this is not a good thing. A government-appointed supervisor erodes the democratic process and limits community representation. So for many Guelph voters, a key question to ask going  into the upcoming election is: “is the Upper Grand District School Board, UGDSB, municipally elected board at risk?”

The good news is that based on the latest budget, UGDSB does not appear to be under imminent threat of a provincially appointed supervision takeover. UGDSB’s current financial position looks considerably different from the boards that have recently attracted provincial intervention.

UGDSB approved a balanced 2026–27 operating budget of $528.7 million in June 2026. The board describes the budget as “aligned, balanced and compliant” with Ontario Ministry of Education requirements. (UGDSB, 2026)

Is there cause for concern?

Unfortunately yes. In its 2025–26 budget, the board specifically acknowledged that its balanced budget carried risks. It said it had reduced non-classroom expenses substantially and warned that some of those reductions weren’t sustainable year after year. (UGDSB, 2025). This acknowledgement was carried forward in the 2027-2027 budget (UGDSB, 2026)

One does not have to look to far in the past to see that UGDSB has had budgetary shortfalls. In 2023-24 the UGDSB had a $6.5 million budget shortfall. Thankfully, the board was able to cover the shortfall by using an accumulated surplus. (UGDSB, 2024)

However, utilizing surplus funds will likely not be an option for the UGDSB going forward. Which could result in the board running a deficit that it can’t cover from its coffers. Why? Simply, the funding formula is at the core.

But isn’t the Provincial government spending more on education than it ever has?

Although this statement is true, it isn’t the whole truth. The Provincial government is spending over 30 billion dollars on education in Ontario in 2025-2026. No other administration has spent this amount of money on education.

But really…that’s just how inflation works.

Most administrations can claim that they are spending more on education than ever before. The more important number to look at is the funding per student based on inflation adjusted numbers.

This year, the Province of Ontario’s funding formula is $14,504 per student. This amount is the lowest since 2018-19 when the Province of Ontario spent $14,923 per student. That is $409 less than was spent pre-COVID, and many Guelphites would attest that life hasn’t gotten less expensive since the pandemic. (FAO, 2025)

The actual cost per student in Ontario is approximately $14,997 (FAO, 2025). This suggests that the Provincial government is funding education at a deficit.

What does this mean to Guelphites?

When the Provincial government is funding education at a deficit, it will require UGDSB to find money elsewhere. This could be identifying sources of revenue, or cutting costs.

It is important to note that in 2025 the per student funding at the UGDSB was $14,274 (UGDSB, 2025). To balance their budget, UGDSB delayed updating assets, and reduced capital spending. This delay will be felt in the upcoming year, as UGDSB opens a new high-school in Guelph, continues to update College Heights to be a focused trades centre and retrofits older buildings to make them compliant with AODA.

With the new operating costs of a new high-school, realizing the capital projects in the upcoming year, there is risk that the UGDSB could find itself in a shortfall once again.

In the past year UGDSB announced layoffs of approximately 105 staff, the cancellation of pre-IB program and has a French Immersion study currently underway (Guelph Today, 2026).  

So while the UGDSB does not appear at imminent risk of being taken over by a Provincially appointed supervisor, there is cause for concern on the horizon.

References:

FAO: Ministry of Education: 2025 Spending Plan Review

Guelph Today: MUST READ: UGDSB issues 100 layoff notices to elementary teachers, ECEs

UGDSB adopts balanced 2026-27 budget focused on student success

UGDSB approves 2023-24 school year budget

UDSB Draft Budget 2025

UGDSB passes balanced 2025-26 budget, but not without challenges

Why have municipally elected school boards been in the news recently?

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You may have read or seen that school boards have been uncharacteristically featured in news reporting over the past 12 months. Like many, you may be asking why?

Although the reporting may suggest otherwise, it is important to note that Ontario is not taking over municipal governments or eliminating school boards across the province. The Ford government has been placing individual school boards under provincial supervision.

As of 2026, this has become a significant expansion of provincial control over municipally elected boards.

Why is the province doing this?

The stated reasons include accountability and financial/governance problems.

Ontario says school boards are responsible for managing their own finances, governance, schools and educational programs, but the Minister of Education has powers to intervene when a board is not managing those responsibilities properly. Recent legislation has expanded those powers. (Ontario, 2026)

But there is a larger issue in play.

Ontario has moved beyond financial supervision. In some cases, the provincial supervisor has substantial authority over the board’s budget, staffing, operations and governance. In addition, the province has indicated that supervision could last for years rather than be a short-term financial intervention. (Global News, 2026)

How can a government takeover of your local school board be avoided?

Don’t ignore the risk. Take proactive measures to mitigate the circumstances that have led to government intervention. This includes:

Make the board’s financial management almost impossible to attack by ensuring that the board has financial literacy and understands both operational and capital pressures.

Demonstrate transparent governance by documenting key decisions and following local and provincial policies. Share board outcomes with the community, local officials, and ministry partners.

Establish a strong partnership with Provincial counterparts by building solid relationships that support the common goal of a fiscally responsible operation that is centred on student success and outcomes.

Take a solution-minded approach. Boards need to monitor risk and work with staff to identify creative approaches to manage budgetary pressures. Build project governance skills to launch and monitor initiatives that address fiscal and operational pressures.

These approaches can help change the board/Ministry relationship:

From a reactive one, where the Ministry discovers a problem and supervises the board, to a proactive one, where the Board identifies a problem, informs the Ministry, and demonstrates corrective action to manage it.

References:

https://www.ontario.ca/page/school-board-oversight

https://globalnews.ca/news/11726020/ontario-school-board-supervision-timeline/

The Mutant and The Mule – The Prairies Book Review

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Visceral, gritty, and propulsive – The Prairies Book Review

An engineered mutant soldier and a bitter, alcoholic wasteworker form an uneasy alliance in Blair’s politically charged dystopian novel. Decades after the Genetic Wars, Cincuenta Yuno functions as both fortress and machine. Helia, a powerful Mutant soldier, goes rogue after a failed mission. Hunted by the Department of Sanitation, she teams up with Ari, a Mule from the city’s underbelly. Their goal: survive Cincuenta Yuno and take on the system that’s crushing them both.

Ari brings grit and vulnerability to the story. She drinks to numb, lashes out to protect herself, but her quiet return to feeling is its own act of courage. Helia, meanwhile, is shaped by loss: her lover Emily, conscripted into forced motherhood, haunts her every step. This subtle but piercing subplot drives home the cost of a society that weaponizes reproduction and erases agency. There are no chosen ones here, no tidy resolutions. Blair builds a world where resistance is messy, alliances are temporary, and survival is uncertain. And yet, there’s hope, not in revolution, but in solidarity, in a single act of one character saving another, in pushing back, inch by inch.

A page-turning, emotionally charged tale of power, suppression, and unexpected connection.

The Mutant and the Mule by A. A. Blair

The Mutant and The Mule – OnlineBookClub.org Review

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★★★ – OnlineBookClub.org Review

The Mutant and The Mule by A. A. Blair follows Helia, a mutant soldier, as she infiltrates the Norm compound of Cincuneta Yuno, a place where mutants are not welcomed and mules are simply tolerated. Not long after her infiltration, Helia met Ari, who saved her life and decided to do everything in her power to help Helia complete her mission. But the mission has bigger and greater threats and surprises than either of them could imagine. Read The Mutant and The Mule to discover what happens to Helia and Ari. 

There are several aspects I love about this book. Blair’s writing style is captivating; it kept me curious about the story from the beginning. The descriptions are vivid, and the language is simple. Helia is a realistic character with flaws, feelings, and a powerful personality. Her relationship with Ari is interesting, as it does not follow the typical patterns of a romance novel. I enjoyed reading that the place where the events unravel is called Cincuenta Yuno, as in Spanish, this means fifty-one (cincuenta y uno). I do not know if the author did this intentionally, but in my mind, he did.  I adored the ending; it left me waiting for more, and I hope the author writes a second part (or more).

The Mutant and The Mule receives the Literary Titan Silver Book Award!

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“The Literary Titan Silver Book Award celebrates the brilliance of outstanding authors who have captivated us with their skillful prose, engaging narratives, and compelling real and imagined characters.

We recognize books that stand out for their innovative storytelling and insightful exploration of truth and fiction. Join us in honoring the dedication and skill of these remarkable authors as we celebrate the diverse and rich worlds they’ve brought to life, whether through the realm of imagination or the lens of reality.”

– Literary Titan

“I am honored to receive the Literary Titan Silver Book Award. My sincere thanks to the reviewers and team at Literary Titan for their thoughtful evaluation and support of independent authors.

I’m looking forward to our upcoming launch and sharing Helia’s story with readers.

Thank you for believing in this story and helping it to find its place in the literary world.”

— A. A. Blair

Link to award page: https://literarytitan.com/2025/05/02/…

The Mutant and The Mule – Wellington Advertiser Interview

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Really enjoyed the time spent with Ellouise Thompson at The Wellington Advertiser to discuss my upcoming YA novel “The Mutant and the Mule” published by Histria Books.

I can’t believe we’re less than 2 weeks away!

“Guelph author Aaron Blair is set to release his latest novel The Mutant and the Mule on May 13.

Beyond the cover, Blair’s latest novel dives into an “earthbound dystopian future,” focusing on a time when human beings are evolving and acquiring new abilities.

This evolution creates conflict between what Blair calls “humans 2.0 and 1.0” and a new type of mutant known as the “mule”. “

New release – The cover for A. A. Blair’s new dystopian novel, The Mutant and The Mule.

Read the full interview here:

Guelph author Aaron Blair launches new novel May 13